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The past seemed less complicated. The fourth meeting of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A heaving Murrayfield, a 0-0 draw, January 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. A pitch invasion to symbolize the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

Having beaten Ireland, Wales and England, New Zealand had finally been halted in a international match.

A contemporary reporter was nearly overcome with excitement. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he announced excitedly and somewhat optimistically. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Leaving the stadium that evening, home supporters would have had optimism about what was to come. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and zero victories, but clear signs that maybe one was not far off.

A few seasons after, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Half a decade later, history repeated itself. Another three years passed, same story. Five more years went by and, yes, you know the rest.

Modern Encounters

Two decades of matches later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. Across New Zealand and beyond, Auckland to Cardiff - the landscapes have changed but not the outcomes.

During his tenure, Gregor Townsend has broken winless streaks in major European venues, but this challenge is different. Over a century of matches. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Squad Updates

In recent years the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have narrowed to closer margins in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Via their excellence, their power, their chicanery, they secure victory.

We're now at the point of the week where positive expectations that supporters maintained for Scottish success is probably beginning to fade. Optimism meets historical reality.

Key Absences

Recent updates revealed that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. For Scotland's hopes it was a significant setback.

Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's exceptional and had he been declared fit then his absence from play would not have been too worrying.

In an era when most props are replaced long before the hour-mark, his endurance stands out. Unmatched playing time in the Six Nations.

Squad Depth

Another absence is Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with his club. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. While Rae is capable, his international experience consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

And when Rae is finished, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, there's little to suggest that he's All Black-beating class.

Strategic Decisions

The coach has made unexpected selections, partly expected, some puzzling. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, with Darge among substitutes. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable.

Historical Context

Facing the Irish, the All Blacks secured the first leg of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They started slowly, despite numerical advantage, but their last-quarter demolition did the trick.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, their attack, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

Statistical Analysis

For all that their blasts at the end, the last 20 minutes is not where New Zealand typically dominates. Across international matches recently, they've accumulated scores in the first half and 60 in the second half.

Strong opening performances, excellent second quarters, 26 in the third and 34 in the fourth. They come exploding out of the traps.

Required Performance

Against Scotland in 2022, New Zealand scored early in the opening seven minutes. Leading 14-0, victory seemed assured. Scotland recovered majestically to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The lesson here is that, metaphorically, Scotland needs sustained pressure from kickoff - maintaining intensity.

Over the last decade, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have required a points average in the high-20s. Scottish scoring only occasionally against New Zealand.

Final Analysis

Perfect execution is required for Townsend's team. Everything. Wasted opportunities then hopes fade. Disciplinary issues? Repeated infringements? Set-piece struggles? The game is lost.

But what if everything does go right? A blistering beginning. Vocal support. Bedlam. Ruthlessness. Finn Russell's magic. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Optimistic thinking, perhaps. Consistent performance has been elusive from the Scottish team that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If it's in there, it's about time it came out; 120 years is enough of a wait.